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Mister.Weirdo 11-16-2011 06:08 PM

Box Office Predictions/Results Thread
 
This sounds like a weird thread (but since no one's made anything like it, I decided I give it a crack).

This is more or less me giving my predictions for how what the box office will be every week. You guys can make your predictions and give reason's why.

But anyway here's my predictions,

1. Twilight Saga Breaking Dawn (120-140 million) Bad reviews notwithstanding. The Twilight Franchise has always been known as being critic proof. It's only natural (plus with huge tickets already) that the second to final film in the series would have a huge opening (as bad as it sounds).

2. Happy Feet two (40-45 million) Although reviews coming in are very mixed for this sequel to oscar-winning film. Happy Feet two has something that makes it's critical proof like Twilight, it's a family film. So only natural it would do as well as it can, given that Twilight is out on the same weekend. I suspect sort of a retread of the Hangover 2/Kung Fu Panda 2 situation.

3. The Immortals (16-18 million) Need I give reasons.

4. Puss in Boots (13-15 million). It's been out for three weeks already, and Happy Feet will replace it as the new film for the families.

5. Jack and Jill (11-14 million). Although it has received horrendous reviews, it is made with families in mind. I suspect that Jack and Jill will drop as much as Sandler's other films have dropped (40-50%), but won't make 100 million like the Stars other films, but won't flop (like it would really kill his career).

Big Daddy Dave Skywalker 11-16-2011 06:10 PM

You gotta wait until nothing good is coming out to make this thread? Where were you last spring?

Cool idea for a thread though.

Mister.Weirdo 11-16-2011 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Cormier (Post 655723)
You gotta wait until nothing good is coming out to make this thread? Where were you last spring?

Cool idea for a thread though.

There's nothing like the present. Besides the Holiday season is upon us and some big films are getting released.

Big Daddy Dave Skywalker 11-16-2011 06:12 PM

Can't argue with that logic!

Mister.Weirdo 11-16-2011 06:57 PM

I shudder at the thought of Breaking Dawn possibly breaking box office records (which it will most likely do). It's scary.

Mister Ed 11-16-2011 07:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mister.Weirdo (Post 655766)
I shudder at the thought of Breaking Dawn possibly breaking box office records (which it will most likely do). It's scary.

I shudder at the thought of the horrible headline word-play that will ensue if a movie with "Breaking" in the title breaks records.

Mister.Weirdo 11-16-2011 07:05 PM

:spritz:

Tazer 11-16-2011 07:16 PM

Yo.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mister.Weirdo (Post 655766)
I shudder at the thought of Breaking Dawn possibly breaking box office records (which it will most likely do). It's scary.

ok, I know its evil but I couldnt help this: I was thinking of this movie title and then I thought of the BtVS -character Dawn, and then my mind went places............

howcum I cant wipe this evil smile from my face??

ok, sorry 4 interrupting the thread; plz continue on........





Tazer

Mister.Weirdo 11-16-2011 07:21 PM

I think I would have laughed if the trailers for Breaking Dawn said, "From the Director of Kinsey, and Dreamgirls". Bill Condon has lost my respect. Even when Breaking Dawn does make a fortune at the box office.

Mister.Weirdo 11-18-2011 08:13 PM

http://www.toofab.com/2011/11/18/twi...n-series-best/ (yeah it's sad).

Tons of people stayed up late to see the midnight showing of "Twilight: Breaking Dawn" -- earning the film a whopping $30.3 million at the box office!

Variety is reporting -- the third installment in the Twilight series now has the highest midnight opening of the trilogy -- beating out "Eclipse" by a solid $300 thousand.

The numbers are still coming in ... but we're guessing this will be a huge weekend at the box office for the film.

Darth_Primus 11-18-2011 08:14 PM

Vampires rule! Suck it!

Mister.Weirdo 11-18-2011 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth_Primus (Post 656826)
Vampires rule! Suck it!

Vampires rule, just not in Twilight.

Darth_Primus 11-18-2011 08:18 PM

Yup, that's why Kate Beckinsale is confirmed for Underworld 4.

Mister.Weirdo 11-19-2011 02:10 PM

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3311&p=.htm

The Twilight phenomenon showed no signs of fading on Friday, though Breaking Dawn Part 1 fell just short of setting a new series record. The fourth installment debuted to an estimated $72 million yesterday, which is the third-highest opening day ever behind Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 ($91.1 million) and The Twilight Saga: New Moon ($72.7 million). While it couldn't quite pass New Moon, Breaking Dawn did have the second-best debut in the series ahead of last Summer's Eclipse ($68.5 million) and the original Twilight ($36 million). Out of its $72 million opening day, $30.25 million came from midnight showings. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 should be headed for around $140 million for the three-day frame, which will qualify as the fifth-best opening weekend ever.

While Twilight was able to maintain series momentum, Happy Feet Two struggled to attract a fraction of the interest of the original movie. The animated sequel opened to an estimated $5.9 million from 3,606 theaters, which is less than half of Happy Feet's $12.3 million debut in 2006. The discrepancy is exacerbated by the fact that Happy Feet Two added 3D, meaning attendance took an even bigger hit. Following the first movie's pattern, Happy Feet Two appears in line for a $20 million weekend.

With the combination of Breaking Dawn's all-consuming opening and the fact that many kids were out of school last Friday for Veterans Day, the holdovers all experienced substantial declines. Immortals was off a whopping 74 percent to an estimated $3.82 million. That's worse than 300 and Clash of the Titans, which dropped 64 percent and 68 percent, respectively. The movie has now earned $44.5 million through eight days, and it looks poised for a $12-13 million weekend gross.

Jack and Jill dropped 64 percent to $3.5 million. That decline is worse than most Sandler fare, though it's about on par with You Don't Mess with the Zohan (63 percent) and an improvement over Funny People (70 percent). The movie has so far made $32.5 million, and it should finish the weekend with roughly $13 million.

After holding steady for three straight weeks, Puss in Boots fell hard with direct competition from Happy Feet Two. The movie dropped 62 percent to an estimated $3.4 million, which brings its total to a strong $115 million. It will likely move up to third place for the weekend with around $14 million.

On its second Friday, J. Edgar fell 58 percent to $1.8 million. That's steeper than director Clint Eastwood's Hereafter, which declined 50 percent last Fall. The period drama, starring Leonardo DiCaprio, has so far made $16.6 million.

Mister.Weirdo 11-20-2011 09:45 PM

While it wasn't quite able to reach the series high mark, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1's outstanding estimated $139.5 million opening indicated that the sexy teen vampires are as popular as ever. What does appear to have lost some of its appeal, however, is dancing penguins: Happy Feet Two struggled to even open to half as much as its popular 2006 predecessor. Overall box office was up around 14 percent to at least $221 million, and the weekend could wind up ranking as the fifth-highest on record.

Breaking Dawn's $139.5 million opening is second-best among Twilight movies behind 2009's New Moon ($142.7 million). That's a small gap, though, and Breaking Dawn still managed to claim fifth place on the all-time opening weekend chart behind Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Dark Knight, Spider-Man 3 and New Moon. As is typical for the Twilight movies, its weekend was incredibly front-loaded with 51.6 percent of the gross coming from Friday showings (including its $30.25 midnight tally).

The audience was 80 percent female and 60 percent over 21 years old. That's more female-skewing than Eclipse (65 percent) but even with New Moon (80 percent). Also, the audience was younger for those movies (only 50 percent over 21 years old), though it's logical for the crowd to age along with the series. Breaking Dawn received a "B+" CinemaScore, which improved to an "A-" among females.

Happy Feet Two debuted to an estimated $22 million, or just over half as much as the $41.5 million that the first Happy Feet opened to on the same weekend in 2006. While that was going up against a weaker competitor (Casino Royale opened to less than a third of Breaking Dawn Part 1), Happy Feet Two did receive a bit of a boost from 3D with 50 percent of its weekend gross coming from 2,825 3D screens. The audience was 57 percent female and 53 percent under 25 years old, and the movie received a "B+" CinemaScore.

Immortals plummeted 62 percent to an estimated $12.3 million. That's an improvement over August's Conan the Barbarian (68 percent), but it's off from Clash of the Titans (57 percent) and 300 (54 percent). Through 10 days in theaters, the fantasy epic has earned just shy of $53 million.

Jack and Jill fell 52 percent to $12 million in its second weekend. The decline was better than that of star Adam Sandler's You Don't Mess with the Zohan (58 percent) and Grown Ups (53 percent), though those were both Summer releases that are less dependent on strong weekend grosses. This isn't an impressive hold for a late-year release, and the movie's $41 million total lags significantly behind all of Sandler and director Dennis Dugan's recent collaborations.

Against Breaking Dawn and Happy Feet Two, Puss in Boots took its first major hit this weekend. The animated prequel fell 57 percent to an estimated $10.7 million, which brings its total to $122.3 million. It will pass fellow DreamWorks Animation movie Bee Movie ($126.6 million) sometime this week, and there's still a chance that it closes ahead of Megamind's $148.4 million as well.

Easing 45 percent to an estimated $7 million, Tower Heist had the best hold among the Top Eight movies this weekend. Through its third frame, the Ben Stiller-Eddie Murphy action comedy has earned $53.4 million.

J. Edgar was off 47 percent to $5.9 million in its second outing. That drop is nearly identical to director Clint Eastwood's Hereafter last Fall, albeit with slightly lower grosses. J. Edgar has now made $20.7 million, and it looks like it's going to be a tough road to get past $40 million.

The Descendants cracked the Top 10 with an estimated $1.2 million from just 29 theaters. That's a stronger start than director Alexander Payne's Sideways and About Schmidt, though their patterns were more gradual so it isn't exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. Those two movies finished with $71.5 million and $65 million, respectively, which is what The Descendants ought to be shooting for after this strong start.
While it wasn't quite able to reach the series high mark, The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1's outstanding estimated $139.5 million opening indicated that the sexy teen vampires are as popular as ever. What does appear to have lost some of its appeal, however, is dancing penguins: Happy Feet Two struggled to even open to half as much as its popular 2006 predecessor. Overall box office was up around 14 percent to at least $221 million, and the weekend could wind up ranking as the fifth-highest on record.

Breaking Dawn's $139.5 million opening is second-best among Twilight movies behind 2009's New Moon ($142.7 million). That's a small gap, though, and Breaking Dawn still managed to claim fifth place on the all-time opening weekend chart behind Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Dark Knight, Spider-Man 3 and New Moon. As is typical for the Twilight movies, its weekend was incredibly front-loaded with 51.6 percent of the gross coming from Friday showings (including its $30.25 midnight tally).

The audience was 80 percent female and 60 percent over 21 years old. That's more female-skewing than Eclipse (65 percent) but even with New Moon (80 percent). Also, the audience was younger for those movies (only 50 percent over 21 years old), though it's logical for the crowd to age along with the series. Breaking Dawn received a "B+" CinemaScore, which improved to an "A-" among females.

Happy Feet Two debuted to an estimated $22 million, or just over half as much as the $41.5 million that the first Happy Feet opened to on the same weekend in 2006. While that was going up against a weaker competitor (Casino Royale opened to less than a third of Breaking Dawn Part 1), Happy Feet Two did receive a bit of a boost from 3D with 50 percent of its weekend gross coming from 2,825 3D screens. The audience was 57 percent female and 53 percent under 25 years old, and the movie received a "B+" CinemaScore.

Immortals plummeted 62 percent to an estimated $12.3 million. That's an improvement over August's Conan the Barbarian (68 percent), but it's off from Clash of the Titans (57 percent) and 300 (54 percent). Through 10 days in theaters, the fantasy epic has earned just shy of $53 million.

Jack and Jill fell 52 percent to $12 million in its second weekend. The decline was better than that of star Adam Sandler's You Don't Mess with the Zohan (58 percent) and Grown Ups (53 percent), though those were both Summer releases that are less dependent on strong weekend grosses. This isn't an impressive hold for a late-year release, and the movie's $41 million total lags significantly behind all of Sandler and director Dennis Dugan's recent collaborations.

Against Breaking Dawn and Happy Feet Two, Puss in Boots took its first major hit this weekend. The animated prequel fell 57 percent to an estimated $10.7 million, which brings its total to $122.3 million. It will pass fellow DreamWorks Animation movie Bee Movie ($126.6 million) sometime this week, and there's still a chance that it closes ahead of Megamind's $148.4 million as well.

Easing 45 percent to an estimated $7 million, Tower Heist had the best hold among the Top Eight movies this weekend. Through its third frame, the Ben Stiller-Eddie Murphy action comedy has earned $53.4 million.

J. Edgar was off 47 percent to $5.9 million in its second outing. That drop is nearly identical to director Clint Eastwood's Hereafter last Fall, albeit with slightly lower grosses. J. Edgar has now made $20.7 million, and it looks like it's going to be a tough road to get past $40 million.

The Descendants cracked the Top 10 with an estimated $1.2 million from just 29 theaters. That's a stronger start than director Alexander Payne's Sideways and About Schmidt, though their patterns were more gradual so it isn't exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. Those two movies finished with $71.5 million and $65 million, respectively, which is what The Descendants ought to be shooting for after this strong start.

Mister Ed 11-22-2011 05:22 PM

Got a prediction on this week's openings? I'm hearing surprisingly good things about all three family-friendly offerings this week, The Muppets, Hugo, and Arthur Christmas.

Darth_Primus 11-22-2011 05:44 PM

I say the Muppets will gross about $33 over the weekend.

projectile 11-22-2011 06:02 PM

I think that Twilight/The Muppets will be at the top 2 spots. Twilight will still be at the #1 spot and Muppets will be at #2 or the other way around.

Mister Ed 11-22-2011 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by projectile (Post 658003)
I think that Twilight/The Muppets will be at the top 2 spots. Twilight will still be at the #1 spot and Muppets will be at #2 or the other way around.

Much as it would make me laugh uncontrollably to see The Muppets knock Twilight out of the top spot in only its second weekend (as well as upping my opinion of humanity in general) I somehow just can't see it happening. :D

Mister.Weirdo 11-23-2011 10:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mister Ed (Post 657977)
Got a prediction on this week's openings? I'm hearing surprisingly good things about all three family-friendly offerings this week, The Muppets, Hugo, and Arthur Christmas.

1. Twilight Breaking Dawn (50-70 million)
2. The Muppets (30-40 million)
3. Arthur's Christmas (18-20 million)
4. Happy Feet two (12-17 million)
5. Hugo (10-17 million)

Sorry I can't post why. The connection I'm using is limiting my word access. I had an explanation all written out, but I couldn't get it on.

Mister.Weirdo 11-24-2011 02:16 PM

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3314&p=.htm

Mister.Weirdo 11-25-2011 01:41 AM

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...sgiving-266044 (I really wish people would stop throwing Hugo off as a flop, it hasn't been released in every theater, and it's one of the best received movies of the year, I see oscar potentional).

Mister.Weirdo 11-26-2011 06:34 PM

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3316&p=.htm

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 maintained a solid grasp of first place on Friday, though The Muppets continued to be a strong presence in second. Meanwhile, newcomers Arthur Christmas and Hugo remained neck-and-neck despite Arthur's significant theater count advantage.

Breaking Dawn Part 1 plummeted 76 percent to an estimated $16.9 million on Friday. That decline is nearly identical to that of New Moon at the same time in 2009. With $196.2 million so far, though, Breaking Dawn is currently trailing New Moon by over $9 million. The fourth installment in the Twilight series appears to be on target for a five-day Thanksgiving weekend around $60 million.

The Muppets added $12.3 million yesterday for a three-day total of $24.8 million. It's closely following the pattern of Disney's 2007 Thanksgiving entry Enchanted, albeit with slightly lower grosses so far. Based on that comparison, The Muppets is currently poised for a $42 million five-day haul.

The music continued to fade for Happy Feet Two on Friday. The movie was off 12 percent to $5.1 million, or just 33 percent of the original Happy Feet's gross on the same day in 2006. Through eight days in theaters, Happy Feet Two has made a meager $35.5 million, and is currently in line for around $18 million for the holiday weekend.

Arthur Christmas earned an estimated $4.55 million on Friday for a three-day total of $8.8 million. That should translate in to around $15 million for the five-day weekend, which is lower than the three-day starts of all previous Aardman Animation wide releases. With its very direct connection to Christmas, Arthur didn't need to get off to a great start, but it still looks set to come in on the low-end of modest expectations.

Hugo claimed fifth place on Friday with an estimated $4.5 million, which is a very solid tally considering it's only playing at 1,277 venues. The movie has so far made $8.55 million, and will end the weekend with roughly $15 million. Paramount is reporting that 75 percent of Hugo's Friday box office came from 3D presentations.

Much further down the chart, The Artist debuted to an estimated $75,000 at just four locations. That's 63 percent of The King's Speech's opening day, which The Weinstein Company unveiled on the same weekend and at the same number of venues last year. Considering one movie is an uplifting historical drama while the other is a black-and-white silent movie, The Artist's debut is definitely impressive. Still, it remains to be seen how the movie plays outside of New York and Los Angeles.

Mister.Weirdo 11-28-2011 12:43 AM

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3317

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 1 easily repeated in first place at the box office over Thanksgiving weekend, while The Muppets revived the long-dormant franchise with a strong second place debut. Arthur Christmas and Hugo weren't quite as fortunate, though the true measure of their success will be determined over the next month.

Breaking Dawn added an estimated $62.3 million for the five-day weekend, which is a bit off from New Moon's $66.3 million over the same time period in 2009. On Saturday, Breaking Dawn passed $200 million, and through its first 10 days the penultimate Twilight movie has earned $221.3 million.

The Muppets opened to an estimated $42 million, which is down from past Disney Thanksgiving entries Tangled ($68.7 million) and Enchanted ($49.1 million). Considering the previously-dilapidated state of the Muppet brand, though, that number is an enormous accomplishment, and credit is due to Disney's marketing team for reintroducing the puppets in a fun, engaging advertising campaign. In just five days, the movie eclipsed the total of all previous Muppet movies with the exception of 1979's The Muppet Movie, which it will pass by next weekend. Of course, it still lags behind all of the movies in attendance except 1999 dud Muppets from Space, though that will quickly change over the next week or two. The audience was 53 percent female and awarded the movie an "A" CinemaScore.

Happy Feet Two fell 14 percent to $18.4 million for the five-day frame. In comparison, the first Happy Feet improved 22 percent to $50.6 million over Thanksgiving weekend in 2006. The sequel's $44.8 million total is a far cry from the original's $99.3 million through the same point.

Arthur Christmas debuted in fourth place with an estimated $17 million. It's $12.7 million three-day start ranks at the bottom of Aardman Animation wide releases, though it surely relieved some demand with its Wednesday opening. While this isn't a very impressive debut, the movie's direct connection to the upcoming Christmas holiday should translate in to strong holds throughout the month of December. 3D presentations accounted for 53 percent of the gross, and the audience was 59 percent female and 31 percent under the age of 25. The movie received an "A-" CinemaScore.

Hugo claimed fifth place with an estimated $15.4 million at just 1,277 locations. As hard as this may be to believe, Hugo's $11.35 million Friday-Sunday gross is actually director Martin Scorsese's third-highest debut ever behind Shutter Island and The Departed. Throughout the marketing effort distributor Paramount Pictures consistently emphasized the benefits of seeing Hugo in 3D, which paid off with a 75 percent 3D share. Paramount is currently planning to expand Hugo in to many more theaters on Dec. 9, which should help the movie hold well throughout the season.

Down in 10th place, Alexander Payne's The Descendants added a massive $9.24 million from just 433 locations. That's an incredibly strong expansion for the Fox Searchlight awards contender, and the movie will surely be making a nationwide expansion in the next week or two.

Aside from the onslaught of new family movies, the weekend also saw a few noteworthy limited releases targeted at adults. My Week with Marilyn burst on to the scene with $2.1 million over its first five days. After playing at 123 locations on Wednesday and Thursday, it expanded to 244 theaters for the traditional three-day weekend and claimed a spot in the Top 12 with $1.77 million.

David Cronenberg's A Dangerous Method opened to $241,000 from four theaters over the five-day weekend for a solid $60,250 average. The period drama about Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung stars Keira Knightley, Viggo Mortensen and Michael Fassbender, and it should be in good shape for a solid limited run.

Finally, The Artist opened at four theaters on Friday and earned $210,000 for the three-day weekend. That's 59 percent of The King's Speech's opening at the same time last year. The Weinstein Company will almost likely expand the movie gradually over the next two months to take advantage of inevitable awards buzz and strong word-of-mouth, though it's hard to imagine this black-and-white silent movie playing well outside of arthouse theaters.

Mister.Weirdo 11-30-2011 08:26 PM

Nothing big is coming out this week. Twilight will probably rule the box office again (maybe not?).

1. Twilight Breaking Dawn (30-40 million)
2. The Muppets (20-40 million)
3. Hugo (20-25 million)
4. Happy Feet two (10-15 million)
5. Arthur's Christmas (10-15 million).


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