Box Office Predictions/Results Thread

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http://blogs.wsj.com/speakeasy/2014/...at-box-office/

Proving once again that audiences may complain about remakes in conversation but can’t get enough of them at the box office, Godzilla emerged from the ocean depths to huge ticket sales.

The latest big screen version of the Japanese monster opened to $93.2 million, according to studio estimates, stomping expectations and become an immediate success.

The new film, produced by Legendary Pictures LLC and co-financed and released by Time Warner Inc.’s Warner Bros. for about $160 million, was expected to primarily appeal to audiences overseas. While international opening numbers weren’t immediately available, the highest estimates last week among experts who track pre-release surveys were that “Godzilla” would open to about $80 million.

Instead, the movie’s launch was very similar to two of 2014’s other big budget event movies, both sequels to recent hits: “Captain America: The Winter Soldier” and “The Amazing Spider-Man 2.”

Drawing a largely young, male audience, “Godzilla” was the biggest hit of the year so far on large format screens from Imax Corp.

Though critics had mixed opinions on “Godzilla,” which provides only fleeting glimpses of the titular creature until a climactic battle near the end, audiences kept coming all weekend and gave it an average grade of B+, according to market research firm CinemaScore.

The weekend’s only other new film in nationwide release was Walt Disney Co.’s feel-good sports drama “Million Dollar Arm,” which opened to a soft $10.5 million. But the movie, which stars “Mad Men’s” Jon Hamm, cost only about $25 million to make.

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Because of the good performance of Godzilla, we will get a sequel:

lEXCLUSIVE: After opening to $103M internationally — the biggest opening of 2014 so far — and grossing $93M domestic stateside this weekend, it should come as no surprise that Legendary Pictures and Warner Bros.‘ are already developing a sequel to the monster hit. It was confirmed to Deadline this morning that a Godzilla sequel is underway. The beast is currently stomping across international markets to take No. 1 spots in most territories.

http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/godz...areth-edwards/

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Because of the good performance of Godzilla, we will get a sequel...

Now we just need the announcement from Toho that due to the box office success they will be making a real, Japanese Godzilla movie again.

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Predictions for this weekend (May 23 - 25)

1. X Men: Days of Future Past - 98m (117m 4 days)

2. Godzilla - 39m (50m 4 days)

3. Blended - 15m (20m 4 days)

4. Neighbors - 13m (17m 4 days)

5. TASM2 - 10m (13m 4 days)

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I'd be happy if Godzilla could take the number 2 spot behind the X-Men and take in about $39-$42 million dollars.

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http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...en-days-706933

Bryan Singer's critically acclaimed X-Men: Days of Future Past is soaring at the Memorial Day weekend box office, where it is on track to earn $110 million from 3,996 theaters through Monday. Internationally, the 20th Century Fox tentpole took in $171.1 million for the weekend, putting its global total at a whopping $281.1 million -- the best debut of any X-Men film.

Days of Future Past also marked Fox's top international opening of all time, besting Avatar.

Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore's comedy, Blended, isn't so lucky. The Warner Bros. film, placing No. 3 after Days of Future Past and Godzilla, may only earn $18.1 million from 3,555 locations for the four-day holiday weekend, one of the worst openings for a Sandler in recent times.

Days of Future Past is a victory for Fox and Singer, who withdrew from promoting Days of Future Past after a sex abuse lawsuit was filed against him. Domestically, the film earned $90.7 million for the three-day weekend itself for worldwide total of $261.8 million. That easily bested the $203 million worldwide opening of X-Men: The Last Stand, whose worldwide rollout was all but the same.

"This record-breaking result reflects the incredible work done by the film makers and cast on this X-Men saga, together with the passion and diligence of the new global distribution and marketing team at Fox," said Fox's Paul Hanneman, the studio's relatively new co-president of worldwide marketing and distribution. Overseas, the tentpole opened in virtually every major market, save for Japan and Spain.

The movie, costing $200 million-plus to produce, features actors from the original X-Men trilogy of films and X-Men: First Class, including Hugh Jackman, James McAvoy, Michael Fassbender, Jennifer Lawrence, Halle Berry, Anna Paquin, Ellen Page, Peter Dinklage, Patrick Stewart and Ian McKellen.

Singer, who directed the first two X-Men films, produced the well-reviewed Days of Future Past alongside Lauren Shuler Donner, screenwriter Simon Kinberg and Hutch Parker.

Overseas, Day of Future Past took in $37.7 million in China, the studio's second-best opening of all time after Titanic 3D, which went on to earn a massive $150 million. Additionally, Days of Future Past marked Fox's biggest opening in 11 markets, including South Korea ($13.5 million). Elsewhere, it debuted to $14.2 million in the U.K., and to $13.5 million in France, the biggest launch of the year to date for a Hollywood title.

In North America, Days of Future Past scored the fifth-best Memorial Day opening of all time after Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End ($139.8 million), Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull ($126.9 million), X-Men: The Last Stand ($122.9 million) and last year's Fast & Furious 6 ($117 million).

Blended, the other new nationwide offering in North America, reteams Sandler with Drew Barrymore. While the comedy about two single parents who end up together on an African safari with their kids got a critical drubbing, audiences were more forgiving, awarding it an A- CinemaScore. One saving grace is the film's relatively modest $45 million budget.

The four-day total would make it amongst Sandler's lowest openings of the past five years, only topping That's My Boy's $13.5 million three-day opening two years ago (Blended's three-day is $14.2 million). His previous box office outing, last July's Grown Ups 2, opened to $42.5 million domestically over three days.

Warners president of domestic distribution Dan Fellman said good weather across the country kept many people away from the multiplex over Memorial Day weekend. Last year, in addition to the strong showing of Fast & Furious 6, The Hangover: Part III debuted to $50 million.

"With the four-day weekend box office down a projected 27 percent...Blended was hampered form maximizing its potential. The A- CinemaScore will help grow our box office as we continue into the lucrative summer playtime," Fellman said.

Facing fierce competition from Days of Future Past, Legendary Pictures and Warners' Godzilla fell to No. 2 in its second weekend, falling 66 percent for the three-day weekend to $31.4 million from 3,952 theaters. The film's projected four-day gross is $40 million.

Globally, the tentpole zoomed past the $300 million mark on Sunday. Internationally, it has earned $166.6 million, helping Warners cross the $1 billion mark in foreign box office revenue for the 14th consectuvie.

Universal's R-rated comedy Neighbors continued to shine, coming in No. 4 in its third weekend with a three-day gross of $13.9 million from 3,266 locations and a projected four-day gross of $17.3 million. The Seth Rogen and Zac Efron film will finish the long holiday weekend with a domestic total of roughly $117 million. Overseas, the movie grossed another $17.3 million for a stellar international total of $67.4 million.

Sony's The Amazing Spider-Man 2 rounded out the top five, reporting a three-day gross of $7.8 million from 3,160 theaters and a projected four-day gross of $10 million for a domestic total of $187.1 million through Monday. Internationally, the sequel took in another $11.2 million for an international cume of $489 million and worldwide total of $686.1 million.

Jon Favreau's Chef moved into the top 10 in its third weekend as it expanded into a total of 498 theaters. The indie food truck comedy grossed $2.2 million for the three-days and an estimated $2.9 million for the four, putting its domestic total at $4.2 million. Open Road Films is distributing the movie in the U.S.

Dat Godzilla drop.

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Predictions for this weekend (May 30 - J2)

1. Maleficent - 63m

2. DOFP - 35m

3. A Million Ways To Die In The West - 26m

4. Godzilla - 13m

5. Blended - 8m

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http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/box-...-side-saddled/

1). Maleficent (DIS), 3,948 theaters / $24.2M Fri. / 3-day cume: $65M to $70M+ / Wk 1

2). X-Men: Days of Future Past (FOX), 4,001 theaters (+5) / $9.5M Fri. / 3-day cume: $31M+ to $32M+ (-66%) / Total expected cume: $161M / Wk 2

3). A Million Ways to Die in the West (UNI), 3,158 theaters / $6.1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $16M to $17M+ / Wk 1

4). Godzilla (WB), 3,501 theaters (-451) / $3.3M Fri. / 3-day cume: $11M / Total cume: $173.5M / Wk 3

5). Blended (WB), 3,555 theaters (0) / $2.37M Fri. / 3-day cume: $7.8M to $8.2M (43%) / Total cume: $28.9M to $29.4M / Wk 2

6). Neighbors (UNI), 2,939 theaters (-327) / $2.4M Fri. / 3-day cume: $7.2M to $7.5M / Total cume: $128M+ / Wk 4

7/8). The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (SONY) 2,152 theaters (-1,008) / $1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.6M / Total cume: $192.5M / Wk 5

Million Dollar Arm (DIS), 2,329 theaters (-690) / $1M Fri. / 3-day cume: $3.6M / Total cume: $28M / Wk 3

9). Chef (OPRD), 624 theaters (+126) / $496K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.8M / Total cume: $6.76M / Wk 4

10). The Other Woman (FOX), 1,114 theaters (-1,040) / $435K Fri. / 3-day cume: $1.38M / Total cume: $81M / Wk 6

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http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/m...ffice/9825599/

Angelina Jolie concocted quite the potion for theaters this weekend.

Her Sleeping Beauty companion film Maleficent enchanted the box office well beyond expectations, taking in $70 million, according to studio estimates from Rentrak.

The debut provided a storybook chapter for the film, which marked the largest debut of Jolie's career, eclipsing the $60.2 million bow for Kung Fu Panda in 2008.

Analysts projected about $50 million for the film.

But modernized fairy tales have been the rage in Hollywood: Last year Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters collected $55.7 million, while Snow White and the Huntsman stormed the box office with $155.3 million in 2012.

While critics were unimpressed with Maleficent —- only 50% of critics gave it a thumbs-up, says Rotten Tomatoes — fans were staunchly behind the fairy tale, giving it a collective "A," says pollsters CinemaScore.

The movie "overcame middling reviews and shows that Jolie remains a box office draw despite Maleficent being her first acting role since 2010" in The Tourist, says Tim Briody, analyst for Box Office Prophets.

The debut was plenty to dethrone X-Men: Days of Future Past, which dropped to second place with $32.6 million.

A Million Ways to Die in the West, Seth MacFarlane's raunchy comedy, underscored the perennial difficulty of Westerns at the box office. The film captured just $17.1 million and third place. Forecasters expected $25 million for the comedy, which also stars Liam Neeson and Charlize Theron.

Only a third of critics recommended the movie, which earned a middling "B" from moviegoers. Briody attributed the opening to "lousy reviews and all the best gags appearing in the trailer."

Godzilla took fourth place with $12.2 million, followed by the comedy Blended, which claimed fifth with $8.4 million. Final figures are due Monday.

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I am really surprised by this. I would have taken the under based on the $63 million prediction. The movie (Maleficent) is really, really slow. I won't say boring, but it dances on the borderline sometimes.

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Predictions for this weekend (June 6 - June 8).

1. The Fault In Our Stars - 65m

2. Edge of Tomorrow - 35m

3. Maleficent - 31m

4. X Men Days of Future Past - 15m

5. A Million Ways To Die In The West - 6m

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http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/new...es-edge-709933

Younger females are storming the North American box office to see The Fault in Our Stars, which now has a shot at crossing $20 million on Friday and $45 million for the weekend. That's a major victory for Fox 2000, which made the movie for a reported $12 million.

The Fault in Our Stars, the film adaptation of John Green's YA novel, is trouncing Tom Cruise's big-budget Edge of Tomorrow, a sci-fi epic that cost Warner Bros. and Village Roadshow at least $178 million to produce.

The critically acclaimed Edge of Tomorrow is doing slightly better than expected at the Friday box office and could approach $30 million for the weekend, versus $25 million. That's still a problematic number, considering the movie's cost. Edge hopes to make up ground overseas, where Cruise remains a far bigger movie star.

Edge of Tomorrow opened to strong numbers in China on Thursday, grossing $6.7 million, the No. 4 opening of the year. And it scored the top opening day of all time for a Cruise film in Russia ($1.4 million). The film, which began rolling out in select markets last weekend, has now earned $41 million internationally.

Directed by Doug Liman and co-starring Emily Blunt, Edge of Tomorrow stars Cruise as a military spin doctor who finds himself on the battlefield, where he is forced to live the same day over and over again.

Fault's Friday take includes an astounding $8.2 million earned Thursday night, one of the best showings of any summer film and on par with Thursday-night grosses for fellow Fox title X-Men: Days of Future Past. Its Thursday-night performance was boosted by 650 special fan screenings that cost $25 per ticket. The screenings included an interview with Green and the cast that was simulcast in theaters. The movie opened in a number of other theaters at 9 p.m.

Females under the age of 25 are by far the most interested in seeing Fault, which stars Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort as two young lovers who meet in a cancer support group. Fault producers Wyck Godfrey and Marty Bowen are certainly no strangers at winning over females, having spearheaded the Twilight franchise for Summit Entertainment.

Josh Boone directed The Fault in Our Stars from an adapted script by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber. The movie also stars Laura Dern, Sam Trammell, Nat Wolff and Willem Dafoe.

Fault launches in a handful of foreign markets this weekend, including Brazil, where Green's book is a cultural phenomenon.

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What, people aren't excited to see Tom Cruise running around in a body suit with blood tricking down his temple and carrying some bazooka thing ONE MORE TIME?

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http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/...-482m-24047865

In a box-office battle that pitted young against old, female against male, modest drama against big-budget spectacle, the teenage romance "The Fault in Our Stars" easily bested the time-shifting Tom Cruise action film "Edge of Tomorrow."

With a $48.2 million domestic debut, "The Fault in Our Stars" thumped the $29.1 million opening for "Edge of Tomorrow," according to studio estimates Sunday. It did so with a far less seasoned star in Shailene Woodley and a $12 million budget a fraction the size of that for "Edge of Tomorrow," made for approximately $175 million.

The results offered a stark illustration of shifting box-office trends. Whereas big-budget, male-oriented action films with stars like Cruise have long ruled the day at North American multiplexes, those movies are increasingly under siege from films ignited by passionate young female moviegoers.

"The notion of what is traditional summer fare is changing," said Paul Dergarabedian, senior analyst for box-office tracker Rentrak. "Women and young girls are as vitally important to the box office in the summer as the young males, who Hollywood has courted and coveted for decades."

"The Fault in Our Stars," a highly-anticipated adaptation of John Green's best-selling book, was in some ways another example of the power of young-adult fiction. But unlike "Twilight" or "The Hunger Games," ''The Fault in Our Stars" isn't about sci-fi or fantasy, but is rather a more naturalistic drama about young love and cancer.

Twentieth Century Fox said that an overwhelming 82 percent of the audience for the film was female, an unusually large gender gap for such a popular movie. The majority of the audience eagerly turned out for Thursday night and Friday showings.

"We knew that we had an engaged fan base but we weren't sure of the depth of it," said Chris Aronson, Fox's distribution head. "We also knew we had formidable competition in the marketplace for similar if not identical demographics."

That competition — Disney's fairy tale "Maleficent," starring Angelina Jolie — slid to second place in its second week with $33.5 million. With a two-week global sum of $335.5 million, "Maleficent" has performed well, but it remains to be seen if it can be a real money-maker for Disney, which spent an estimated $180 million to make it, plus huge amounts to market it.

Warner Bros.' sci-fi thriller "Edge of Tomorrow," directed by Doug Liman and co-starring Emily Blunt, appealed more to males (61 percent of its audience) and moviegoers older than 25 (73 percent of its audience). The film about a U.S. major (Cruise) stuck in a "Groundhog Day"-like time loop during a battle against invading aliens won Cruise some of his best reviews in years, but — like the star's recent "Oblivion" and "Jack Reacher" — it didn't turn out moviegoers as expected.

"They're just two very different movies and the fact they're both on the same weekend, it's not one versus the other," said Jeff Goldstein, head of domestic distribution for Warner Bros., said referring to "The Fault in Our Stars." ''But there is something really special about a movie like 'Fault,' where an audience really rallied around it."

"For us, this is really about the long play," added Goldstein.

"Edge of Tomorrow" also showed that such films still have a lot of box-office muscle, it's only best flexed overseas. The film made $82 million internationally, making most of that in China, Korea and Russia.

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http://insidemovies.ew.com/2014/06/1...illion-friday/

Two very strong sequels – 22 Jump Street and How to Train Your Dragon 2 – are battling for a top spot at the weekend box office, but early indications put the bumbling cop comedy in the lead. Not surprisingly, the R-rated sequel starring Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum won the derby Friday night with estimates putting the film at $25 million for the day. Sony Pictures, who co-financed the film with MGM, is now predicting 22 Jump Street will gross $60 million for the weekend, putting it above other R-rated summer comedies like Ted ($54.4 million) and Sex in the City ($57 million.)

“This one feels really good,” says Sony’s distribution prez Rory Bruer of Jump Street when reached Saturday morning. “It’s our highest-tested R-rated comedy ever at our research screenings. Focus groups loved it — thought it was hilarious and funnier than the first. We’re going to end up being the second-highest R-rated comedy ever.”

Jump‘s numbers solidly beat out Dreamworks’ animated family film How to Train Your Dragon 2, which nabbed an estimated $18.5 million for the second slot Friday. But things could all turn around today, when families start mobilizing their troops to the dragon flick featuring voice talent from Jay Baruchel, Cate Blanchett, and Gerard Butler.

Third place on Friday went to the three-hankie weeper The Fault in Our Stars, which continues its impressive run. The $12 million film based on the popular John Green novel nabbed an additional $6.4 million its second Friday in release, putting its total at $72.3 million.

Disney’s Maleficient is likely to take a tumble with so many young ones opting for Toothless the dragon in its opening weekend. But the reimagined Disney fairy tale starring Angelina Jolie earned an estimated $5.84 Friday, putting its gross at a solid $144.5 million.

Tom Cruise’s starring vehicle The Edge of Tomorrow is likely to suffer the worst in its second weekend. The film took in only $4.56 million on Friday, for a domestic total that now stands at $45 million.

Here’s the top 5:

1. 22 Jump Street — $25 million

2. How to Train Your Dragon 2 — $18.5 million

3. The Fault in Our Stars — $6.4 million

4. Maleficient — $5.8 million

5. The Edge of Tomorrow — $4.56 million